The Fed 3rd announced that it will maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and will begin to reduce the scale of debt this month, and emphasize that the bad debt does not mean the interest rate hike. Analysis believes that under inflation rising pressure, the Fed hikes or will be advanced than expected.
November launching the reduction assessment plan for the United States Federal Reserve Board’s two-day monetary policy meeting, announced that since December last year, the US economy has achieved substantive progress towards the two major goals of price to prices and full employment. " It will be reduced by 15 billion US dollars in assets ($ 10 billion US Treasury bonds and $ 5 billion institutional mortgage support securities), and the asset purchase speed is adjusted.
At the same time, the Fed also announced that it maintained the federal fund interest rate target interval between zero to%.
This means that from November this year, the Fed will increase the national debt and purchase institutional mortgage support securities to $ 70 billion and $ 35 billion; from December, the amount of government bonds and institutional mortgage support securities will be separately Adjust to $ 60 billion and $ 30 billion. The Fed considers that it may be suitable for asset purchase speed from November. If the US economic prospects have changed, the Fed will also prepare for adjustment asset purchase speed. According to analysts, in accordance with the open market operations announced after this meeting, the November of the debt plan should be carried out during the monthly purchase of mid-November, and December is the monthly purchase period of December. .
If the purchase plan is reduced according to this speed, the Fed will end the credit in June next year.
According to "Wall Street Journal", the market has expected that the Fed will start to reduce assets in November, and the US stock market responds softly to the news of the reduced debt plan. On the same day, the three major indices of the US stocks were collectively rising, and the new dispensing points in the donation is high, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Revenue.
Overall, since the market has been fully prepared to the US Fed reduction in debt debt debt, the "boots landed" is limited. In March last year, the Fed announced that "there is no upper limit" quantitative easing policy to address the impact of the epidemic. As the economy continues to improve, the inflation rate is high, the Fed said in September this year, it may start "very fast" to reduce asset purchase scale. Currently, the Fed continues to purchase about $ 80 billion in US Treasury and $ 40 billion mortgage support securities. No release of interest rate hike information Federal Reconnect Powell said at the post-press conference that the Fed decided to make a monthly reduction of asset purchase scale did not constitute "any direct signal" in interest rate policies. The Fed will "adjust the interest rate policy" in a different and more stringent standard.
"We continue to clearly explain that the economic conditions need to meet different and more stringent test requirements prior to improving the federal fund interest rate." Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized the abstallomation action and the interest rates have not contacted, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve under inflation It will raise 25 basis points for the first time in June next year, which is more than half a year than the Fed’s expectations. According to the FedWatch, FedWatch, the probability of the first interest rate hike in June 2022; the second rate hike will be in September, the probability is 51%; the third time interest rate hike in February 2023 The possibility is 51%, the probability of more than 50% in December 2022. The latest prediction of Goldman Sachs believes that the Fed will raise interest rates in July next year, approximately a year before the previous forecast.
Goldman Sachs also expects the Fed to raise interest rates faster, because the current inflation is high in the middle of next year. At the same time, there are also institutions to present different perspectives.
The US Bank’s Global Research Department said that there is no urgency that is currently interesting, and still maintaining the Fed will begin the first interest rate hike in the fourth quarter of next year. Despite this, if there is a stronger continuous inflation and causes reassessment for maximum employment, the Fed’s first interest rate hike may be advanced. The Chief Global Strategist David Kelly of Jimorgan Datong believes that the Fed will not raise interest rates in July or September next year, but to wait until the last meeting in December next year. The reason is that Powell strongly emphasizes that there is a lot of space between the reduction bond and the beginning of the rate hike, it is a very different thing. Jopya, senior analyst, DAM, said that the Federal Federality is expected to be slowly toned in the end of next year, and whether the monetary policy is tightening will affect economic recovery. Although Powell’s impact on money policy changes on the US stock market, it is expected that the market worry is expected to increase the US stock market for the US stock market. A slightly correction of inflation, the Fed, the Fed, also slightly corrects its views of inflation, acknowledging prices faster than official prediction, but still does not give up the word "temporary" in use.
The Fed said in the statement that as new crown vaccination has made progress and strong policy support, US economic activities and employment indicators continue to increase. The imbalance between the supply and demand in the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic renewal, leading to a sharp rise in the price of some industries and the inflation level. But the Federation is expected to lead part of the factors that have risen inflation will be temporary.
The Fed said that economic development will still depend on the development of the epidemic, and the development of progress and supply restrictions in vaccination will support economic activities and employment, and the inflation is low, but economic prospects still have risks.
At present, the supply chain bottle is limited to the ability of the economy to respond to demand rebound in the short term, leading to a sharp rise in price, the overall inflation rate is over 2% set goals.
However, as the economy is gradually adjusted and recovered from supply and demand imbalance, the inflation rate will be expected to fall nearly 2%.
Analysis believes that the supply chain plugs, the consumer demand is strong and the long-term labor shortage leads to the rise of salary, and the US inflation rate has been in the high of 30 years.
At present, the height of global supply chain recovery time is uncertain, and it is difficult to predict the impact of inflation.
The latest data in September shows that the US employment market has slowed down, although the unemployment rate is further close to the policy goal, the data underestimates the actual employment gap, and you should focus on the participation of labor market.
The Sino-Golden Corporation reported that the Fed was still underestimated by inflation risk, US inflation or continued until the second half of next year or even longer. The current supply constraint in the United States is not as "empty", from the shortage of the chip, the shortage of the port, and the shortage of labor, and every problem here is not easy to solve. Moreover, the supply chain has a ring buckle, and one link is blocked, and the operation efficiency of other links will also decline, so it wants to completely recover more difficult.
Former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, Allen Greenspan, said that he believes that US inflation rates face significantly rising persistent risks. Greenspan said that although some factors that push up prices may be confirmed to be temporary, government debt cumulative and other deep pressure may make the inflation rate long high.
British Oxford Economic Consulting Enterprise Economist Caicao Boshei Anchi previously predicted that the US inflation rate will continue to rise, and will be maintained at 2022.