Territory is comparable to family planning
From the data of about 15 million new born babies nationwide in 2018, economists see that the true reproduction rate has not exceeded 1.
2, and it is expected to continue to decline, because after a round of house price doubles caused by strictly controlled land and shed reforms, house price income exceeds the peak period of the bubble in Japan and Taiwan.
The fertility rate is below 1.
2 means 40% or more reduction per generation.
Now people in their 30s and 40s even have pensions, and most of them have to work until they can’t move before they can retire. Many of the accumulated assets will be worthless by then.
In fact, it doesn’t take that long. The 25-year-old and 20-year-old population are more than 7 million and 13 million less than the 30-year-old respectively, which is enough to drink a pot.
The first cause of this deadlock is the family planning system, which has long been recognized as a growth rate1.
8, simple mental calculations will know that it requires 1 out of 10 women who are unmarried and infertile + 1 only child + 7 second and 1 third child to have 18 children, of which there is only 1 only child,This is obviously not true.
The mentality behind it is that officials often “maintain 深圳桑拿网 the official position, and control it flooding” when it yields tens of thousands of microns per mu.
The peak birth rate in 1990 was 28 million, and only 14 million in 2002. Imagine the pressure on housing prices.
Post-95 women have a reproduction rate of between 6 and 8 million per year.
At 2, the number of newborns is only 6-10 million per year.
However, the more severe population and economic killer in the future is actually land. There are even 45 billion mu of cultivated land and more than 300 million mu of rural homesteads and construction land in a semi-abandoned state. There are more restrictions on land in the name of food security and protection of cultivated land.Developed, and efforts are overweight each session.
As a result, urban residential land in the country is less than zero.
500 million 西安耍耍网 acres, plus the urban industrial warehousing business service land including the industrial park development zone, a total of less than 100 million acres!
In addition, the railway high-speed has only about 1% of the total capital value of the country, but it has accumulated more than the total currency of the United States and Europe. This structure cannot be sustained and healthy for a long time.
House price income exceeds 10, referring to the corresponding growth rate of 1 when Taiwan is 6 times.
2, if it is maintained 10 times, it is estimated that it will soon reach 1.
0 or less.
However, these are not included in the KPI of the country, and they still continue the practices of previous decades.
Capital has always been difficult to go to the countryside, resulting in only 23 million of the 600 million rural residents engaged in modern operations (the third agricultural census in 2016), and the poverty is anthropogenic disposable income1.
420,000 yuan, only 37% of towns.
600 million people have been forced into poverty, and the economy has not moved. There is excess production capacity of steel, building materials, appliances, automobiles, high-speed rail highways, trade surpluses, and friction between China and the United States (ca n’t afford anything good)., Sports land less than 2 square meters is generally a fat house, insufficient education land has led to expensive school districts, private schools and tens of millions of left-behind children. Hundreds of millions of farmers in the north rely on small coal stoves to cause haze.
It can be said that there is no hard book.
After the 2013 Plenary Session, the Third Plenary Session required the market to decide and gradually implement land equalization, but the land instead reversely introduced “strictly restricting the expansion of megacities” and “permanent basic expansion is determined by near and far,” which doubled house prices again.In order to prevent the “central decentralization” from decentralizing planning affairs, it is also trying to use the new land law to break through and authorize ministries and commissions.
From the wrong direction of the land law 20 years ago, it has been difficult to return. Even if radical changes in land policies are complemented by the perfect coordination of modern local fiscal financing and decentralization reforms, in the most optimistic situation, only a small number of people can control their income for 5 years.2.
80,000 to 100,000 yuan, the reproduction rate increased to 1.
8 or so, it is possible to avoid a sharp decline in house prices and financial turmoil.
There are many levels of logic nesting. You need to sort out the relevant experiences of the United States and Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to help clarify several key points.
1 Recently, I read “Why Planning Fails.” The author mentioned that in the 1960s, when urban towns in the United States expanded freely upstream, the median house price / median household income in the urban areas were almost double.
That means that most ordinary young people work for three to five years after graduating from high school, and can get married and buy a house. At that time, 70% of the houses were detached houses, with a median area of 145 square meters, and three or four bedrooms.1000 square meters.
Early marriage, lots of empty rooms, enough space for kids to have fun, and half-old children. You can ask for some pocket money to take care of the little baby. The school is not expensive by the community, and it is full of joy.
Therefore, despite the impact of popular concepts such as feminist anti-war, the birth rate was still 2 in 1969.
5. It can be said that it is a field of hope.
Even at present, according to a data I roughly sketched in the previous two years, except for overseas islands and Alaska, the geographic conditions, religions, ethnic cultures, years of education, income levels, and urbanization rates of the remaining native states are roughly equivalent. Single-family homesThe top five states (more than 72%) have an average reproduction rate of 2.
0, and the five states with the highest percentage of condominiums (more than 35%) just over 1.
6. It can be seen that the house is large and there are many rooms, and the degree of influence on the indigenous intentions is very high.
In contrast, the opponent Soviet Union at that time, the residents were crowded in a 20-square-meter dwelling house, and six or seven young couples shared a kitchen. How could they encourage heroic mothers, and the overall reproduction rate could not be raised.
More than 20 years later, the Soviet Union collapsed.
2 Beginning in the 1970s, the Roman Club ‘s “Limits to Growth” threatened, and then the oil crisis. Many urban planning in the United States began to restrict expansion and residential development. Those cities with the largest expansions now have median house prices / median household income.The number has reached 5 to 8 times, which is comparable to many cities in Europe. However, the cities with comparatively loose development expansion still only have more than two.
The author of Why Planning Fails is distressed.
2% of the land in the United States is enough for everyone to live in big villas, large parking lots, large shopping malls, amusement parks, factory parks, corporate headquarters, school hospitals, planning and planning, which has raised about 30% of housing prices.
Last year, the median house price in the United States was $ 200,000, which was more than three times the median household income of $ 60,000. According to the author, if there is no planning limit, the price-to-income ratio will return to more than twice.
The consequences of restricting development are too many.
The stricter the planning, the more adequate the housing prices and rents, tens of millions of families ca n’t afford a house, or they ca n’t live after renting. The government needs hundreds of billions of dollars a year to supplement interest and rent.Welfare; and the proportion of crime, drug abuse and homelessness is higher, requiring a large amount of government police, prison, welfare and medical expenditures; many children and children give up trying to school, anyway, there is no hope, because the generation of parents has also solidified.
Those methods that originally pursued efficiency, beauty, and convenience were counterproductive, but few people intervened and it was difficult to change.
Seeing this, I think the author is a bit biased.
Since the 1970s and 1980s, East Asian economies such as Japan have continuously accumulated external reserves, robbed orders but did not buy enough American goods, and the external reserves have accumulated to more than $ 5 trillion.
The US industry has lost five to six trillion US dollars in exports and employment, while asset pools such as stocks, government bonds, and real estate have injected an equal amount of water. There has been a huge gap between rising housing prices and lowering salaries. It is not objective enough to mention these.
Fortunately, the United States has a high degree of local autonomy, one city, one policy, and the federal government has no right to intervene. It is not difficult for companies such as Apple Amazon or Fuyao Glass to find cheap land of about 100,000 yuan per acre and build huge headquarters or factories. Residents can alsoFree relocation to those cheap places.
It can be said that some parts of the United States are infected with refractory fungi, and there are still many normal states or cities that can take refuge.
If the author knew about the nationwide chronic suicide caused by land control in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, he might not criticize his country so harshly.
The biggest difference between Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan on the 3rd is that there are many legislations and strong cross-regulation by the central bureaucracy. All local governments, residents, businesses, and landlords have very little autonomy and cannot play the decisive role of the market mechanism.
I have talked too much about the East Asian model in the public name, so I only make up a few paragraphs here.
The non-Liberal Democratic Party Prime Minister Hosuke Hosokawa, who was elected in June 1993, had previously served as Governor of Kumamoto Prefecture (equivalent to the governor), and had repeatedly visited Tokyo ‘s bureaucracy for a 30-meter bus stop.
Maybe it was stimulated. When he was elected Prime Minister, he listed more than 11,000 regulations and announced “abolition in principle.” Of course, he was immediately stepped down.
The other was to see the Taiwan media’s complaints, saying that President Cai went to Taichung to cheer the real industry, but some bosses were angry on the spot: I went to Kobe, Japan to invest, and the factory was per square meter (3.
3 square meters) only 6.
NT $ 50,000, found at NT $ 250,000 in Taichung Industrial Zone, how to do it!
I searched and found that the cheapest Zhangbin Industrial Zone was NT $ 50,000 per ping, and I immediately understood why young people in Taiwan did not raise their salaries for 20 years, and they had to test their civil servants hard or be in trouble.
This mechanism is probably like this: After the land is strictly controlled, it will be difficult for the manufacturing industry to build new factory buildings in the park, and it will only be possible to go to the sea. Other companies will find it difficult to build new headquarters, and they will only be crowded into cities to pay high rents.
Innovative incentives, stock dividends, employee salaries will be thinned by rents, and stock market returns are incomparable to the place where Buffett played.
Factories are not expanding, good employment opportunities are overly concentrated in first-tier cities (so Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have super large central cities). Young people go through tuition classes at a young age for good job opportunities. Only in their thirties can they squeeze into small houses.In addition, we must work hard to repay the mortgage overtime, and the growth rate naturally declines; generally, the mentality collapses when we can’t squeeze in. Japanese youth houses and Taiwanese youth are in trouble.
Including the real estate bubble in Japan, much of the credit is due to land control.
When buyers scrambled to sell, many surrounding land was designated as agricultural land forbidden development, and there was very little land that could be developed, and it took a few years to process the delivery. The price soared, causing more people to pursue it, and the house prices self-circulated.Already.
House prices in Taiwan rose four-fold from 86 to 90. The principle is similar. The funny thing was that the government also restricted land supply at that time.
The bureaucratic society in East Asia is similarly terrifying. Boss, the policy of his predecessor cannot be changed, and the power of colleagues must not be cut. It is tantamount to suicide.
Even plagiarized free media, independent justice and election politics, but the bureaucrats alternated superbly throughout their lives. Prime Ministers and parliamentarians took them almost the same. People and businesses were mainly submissive and catering. Scholars and the media quarreled and passed.The “U.S. government, the largest opposition party,” requires at least structural reforms, but it usually does not work because it cannot be removed from office. The bureaucracy is not nearly equal to zero.
During the US-Japan negotiations, the U.S. group really gave suggestions and requested decentralization of planning authority and adjustment of the land structure, thereby promoting investment and consumption and domestic demand. However, this “American market thinking determines the decisive role” of the American thinking and the East Asian bureaucratic structure isNatural enemies have enjoyed many provincial governors’ pleadings over and over again. The officials of the local “relationship group” who visited the dock several years ago were just as painful as withdrawing heroin.
Finally, we promised to adjust the land tax system. The average residential land for each household was increased to 95 square meters, and infrastructure expansion was increased.
It wasn’t until the bubble burst that the toothpaste was squeezed a little bit to delegate power. Well, the gradual “reform” was indeed more moderate, and the cost was Japan.
However, Japan has received special care. 55% of the houses are built by single-family houses with an average usable area of more than 120 square meters, and the overall yield can reach 1.
4, better than South Korea 1.
0 and Taiwan 1.
2 is much better.
Now I only know that Japan’s ageing is miserable. That is because the peak of birth in South Korea and Taiwan was ten years later than the peak in Japan after the war. It is not yet time for everyone to perform what is called a real human tragedy.
From the miracle to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, from the miracle to the trap in Latin America, there are only two generations. East Asia will not go from miracle to extinction any longer.
However, it is still good that Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are strictly controlled, and there is no prohibition on the circulation of land rights. They have been rich for decades, and no artificially created urban-rural income gap.
Seven times, and the property income gap is 12 times. This is comparable to the fragmentation of Latin America and Africa.
4 At last we have reached the core part: the domestic land policy interrupted the normal wealth cycle and chain transformation, resulting in a reduction in the per capita income of residents by 2/3, and it needs to be continued as soon as possible to maintain economic growth, debt, and house prices.
Some performance indicators need to be given up. Residents have exhausted themselves and are unwilling to have a baby or even get married.
Here are a few examples to help understand the normal mechanism: Example 1: If Beijing newly grants 30 million square meters of new or rebuilt residential and commercial office projects each year, the owner is required to allocate 6 million square meters of school hospital gymnasiums as planned, and each newPay the municipal capacity increase fee per square meter, assuming an average of 1 per square meter.
For 50,000 yuan, the government revenue is 450 billion, which is about twice the gross revenue of land auctions each year.
Banks will automatically provide hundreds of billions of dollars of loans to owners, of which construction and security expenditures will turn into related enterprise revenues and workers’ salaries and flow to the whole country.
The key to a normal mechanism is to qualify with a fiscal and taxation framework.
Property tax is the support of municipal maintenance and the index of municipal bonds. The expansion depends on the market subscription of new bonds and the capacity increase fee for new areas. Levy is based on multiples of the declared value of the property. Several times the price of nail households must be paid annually.Times real estate tax.
In short, there are too many problems with the way in which the superior government restricts land supply + local collection and auction + estimation and loans to support infrastructure.
Example 2: Establish a five-year temporary rule. For every 300 square meters of new residential and office space in the city, a set of homestead indicators need to be purchased.
For the 30 million square meters in Beijing, it is necessary to purchase 100,000 homesteads for about 50 billion yuan, and 100,000 rural residents will bring about 400,000 yuan into the city as a down payment.
Obviously, the receiving cities and towns need to buy homestead indicators again, and continue to demolish more homesteads, so the chain reaction has started.
In five or six years, we can probably correct mistakes. The vast majority of farmers have entered the city. The operating area of full-time farmers has increased tenfold, and suburban villages and towns have quickly become European and American.
Example 3: Enterprises and individuals including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and overseas wealthy, after purchasing multiple or even dozens of hundreds of homestead indicators, you can purchase large tracts of land (multiple will automatically select hills and forest grasslands), build villas, castle estatesAnd headquarters.
Chinese people now purchase 30,000 luxury homes in the United States each year, which is close to US $ 30 billion. 30,000 immigrants even take away 30 million yuan of wealth, which is also a trillion-level outflow of wealth every year.
Why not go to the rural countryside, private high-end hospital schools and charities?
This money will become the consumption and investment of farmers, teachers, doctors, and will return to the company’s revenue, profits and taxes, one round after another.
You need to know that the 2013-2017 financial poverty alleviation subsidy was only 278.7 billion US dollars in five years. Most of them only tossed cadres and raised lazy people. Why should we save 20 times the money to North America and Australia?
Example 4: In the existing suburbs, there is no rigid development boundary around the county seat. With supporting fees and property taxes, sewage treatment and sanitation planning requirements, it will naturally eliminate unnecessary waste.
Even if each household occupies one acre or two acres, it is understood that there are even 200 million people living in six or seven million people, and three or four million acres will be occupied, not to mention that more than half of the village can be returned.
Do not set any planned agricultural land protection policy. The bureaucratic KPI can only increase the number every year.
The above is a rough explanation. The detailed and supporting measures required for actual landing are far from being listed by individuals, and most readers can’t read it.
What can be confirmed is that after the adjustment, urban-rural differences, economic stagnation, debt crisis, housing bubbles, insufficient domestic demand, excess production capacity of steel and building materials and appliances, high-speed rail expressways, insufficient imports caused trade frictions, and even civil servants .
Most of these disappear automatically.
China’s economy can also be transformed into a modern economy: less than 5% of agricultural employment, less than 20% of industrial employment, and the remaining 70% are national defense education, medical, financial, legal, legal, sports, cultural, entertainment, catering, sanitation, property transportation, etc., most of which areServe each other.
At that time, talent really became the source of wealth, not a tool for bureaucratic competition.
In accordance with the “market decision” and “land equalization” and “central land decentralization” proposed by the central government in the past few years, the decentralization of land, rural areas, environmental protection, education, and medical care to be centrally managed by the central government should be initiated long ago.
However, the bureaucratic machinery of the relevant industry ministries is tougher than imagined and cannot be bypassed immediately. If the National People’s Congress and the national ministries and commissions gradually change their finances to reset institutional authority and KPIs, they will not dare to speak in the future.
The space and review are limited, and there are thousands of leaks. Several extended readings are also welcome. Professionals are also welcome to join the knowledge planet. Structural macros and organizational behavior are more timely and thorough.